Political Science Professor Analyzes New Jersey Election Results in Statewide and National Media

Respected media commentator and New Jersey political expert Matthew Hale, associate professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Affairs, has been sought out by prominent pundits throughout this election cycle, from gubernatorial primaries to mayoral run-offs. National and local news organizations alike featured Hale’s expertise this cycle, including CBS, Gothamist, NJ.com, NJ 101.5, Insider NJ, USA Today and more.

In an interview with CBS New York on Tuesday, November 4, Hale reflected on the gap between earlier polls and tallied votes for Democratic candidate Mikie Sherill and Republic candidate Jack Ciatterelli.

“It’s pretty surprising, I think everyone was expecting it to be a nail biter,” Hale told correspondents when asked about the 14-point gap between candidates only one hour after polls closed. In September, Hale spoke with Insider NJ about how close the pre-election polls were; at the time, the associate professor suggested that “Sherrill is still likely to win but it could be by a whisker.”

“These early numbers seem to be really good for the Democrats,” he mused to CBS, adding that “they seem to be overperforming in the areas that they need to, and [Ciatterelli] seems to be underperforming in the areas that he needed to do well.”

When asked if affordability, which has been a major issue throughout the election and one Hale spoke to Gothamist about, was a driving force behind initial results, Hale said no.

“Affordability is, of course, the number one issue for people in New Jersey, but I think this race was ultimately about Donald Trump,” Hale said before suggesting that Sherill’s win would indicate “a repudiation of Trump by New Jersey,” since the governor-elect “spent so much of her campaign running against Trump.”

Following Sherill’s projected victory, Hale spoke to NJ.com and USA Today about the president’s potential influence on the gubernatorial results. “New Jersey said forcefully, loudly and clearly that Trump is not where we want to go,” he told the organizations. “If Trump was not in the race, I think Ciattarelli would have won by 20 points.”

Hale spoke to Gothamist again after the election to discuss the realities of Sherill’s new role. Despite her 13-point win over Ciattarelli, Hale suggested that New Jersey and Sherrill are “in for some tough times.”

“Whether that's battling the federal government or whether it's decreased revenues from [Trump]. I think it could be a pretty set of lean years,” he said.

Select Media

• CBS, “N.J. governor's race was about President Trump, expert says”
• Gothamist, “What to watch in the NJ governor's race, a possible bellwether for the 2026 midterms”
• Gothamist, “Real estate donations to Ciattarelli place rising rents at center of NJ governor’s race”
• Gothamist, “After heated political campaign, Sherrill faces tough budget realities as NJ governor”
• Network Today, “Republican registration surge rocks New Jersey governor’s race”
• NJ.com, “10 days out, the race for N.J. governor is still anyone’s game. This is not normal.”
• NJ.com, “Jersey City mayoral race heads to runoff election between councilman, McGreevey”
• NJ.com, “What experts say about Sherrill’s big win in N.J.’s Trump-filled gov race | What Makes Jersey Run”
• NJ Biz, “Seton Hall’s Hale breaks down Ciattarelli-Sherrill gubernatorial race”
• NorthJersey.com, “How did Mikie Sherrill win? New Jersey rejects Donald Trump and his chaos | Opinion”
• Insider NJ, “Seton Hall Political Expert Matt Hale on Gubernatorial Race”
• USA Today, “Strong Trump backlash propelled Sherrill to victory in NJ | Opinion”

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